The Daily Scoop: Obama & Job Creation

Today, the Daily Scoop has two job creation information resources for your perusal. The first is an interactive Job Creation graph from 2007-Present. It’s worth exploring as it illustrates the timing of particular policy inception and unemployment trends. The second is an article about President Obama’s National Economic Council Director, Gene Sperling and how he and the White House managed a precarious economic balancing act throughout these difficult years.

Click here for the interactive graph: Job Creation 2007-Present

Gene B. Sperling: Obama’s jobs creator

Just before 1:30 p.m. Aug. 3, a frustrated President Obama gathered Gene B. Sperling and the economic team in the White House and told them to design a jobs package he could offer the American public.

Obama had spent much of the year locked in negotiations with Republicans over the national debt, with little to show for the effort but a sagging approval rating. He had wanted to argue publicly for ideas to create jobs, but hesitated in the midst of negotiations. Liberal critics reprised a familiar critique of the Obama White House: that it too often bows to political constraints and forfeits what’s right for what’s possible or easy.
Read more…



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30 Responses to “The Daily Scoop: Obama & Job Creation”

  1. Well now that the BLS injected some of the new census data and manipulated the seasonal adjustment, they falsely made it appear that unemployment is decreasing.
    Hence bolstering marxist-in-chief’s poll numbers for his coming re-selection in November.
    Seems not too many care that U3 unemployment is over 11% and U6 is over 23%.
    The sheep will get their centrally planned government and America will spiral downward
    into decades of mediocrity.

    • I’m sorry but an assessment of unemployment rates that includes “marxist-in-chief” in its 2nd sentence only places it in the hard-to-take-seriously category. There is no conspiracy by government agencies to manipulate numbers to keep one person in the presidency. There is no skewing of numbers here. You’re creating motivations where none exist.

      And as far as the country “spiral[ing] downward into decades of mediocrity” it seems like we’ve been heading that way for most of the last quarter of the 20th Century as income inequality increased and gained prominence as we dove deep in the Great Recession (which was a significant downward spiral in its own right which began well before the current president came into power). We are pulling out of the financial problems that have plagued us for the past 3+ years and the country is seeing a positive light at the end of the tunnel. That’s hardly the downward spiral you seem intent on seeing.

      We can debate some of the numbers if you like but please, in the future, leave the empty rhetoric and conspiracy theories at the door.

      • I really do not care so much what you personally choose to believe.
        The BLS has purposely manipulated the data, that is a fact. Even Rick Santelli said it on CNBC, but was squashed by the far left nuts over there. The S.A. adjustments were incorrectly calculated. Add the new census data in and there you have what APPEARS to be a lower rate with positive net jobs added. The FACTS are that UE is over 11%. Net jobs for January are somewhere in the neighborhood of 100K LESS than stated. No worries mate, you and all who blindly worship Barry O will have no where to run to and hide when the shite hits the fan. Long-Term UE is 41 weeks. That metric alone tells those who understand statistics, that UE is worsening.
        But hey, you are anchored in your pro-government beliefs, so you will never change your pov and I suspect you won’t even when the data will come to prove otherwise.

      • So please enlighten me as to the indicators of an ACTUAL improvement in the economy? GDP was 0.6% after inventories (1.9%) were stripped out.
        And Auto’s (0.3%) 0.6%! You call that improvement? Too funny.
        Housing in still in a depression. Median prices keep falling, foreclosures are mounting, 60-day mortgage delinquencies are rising, Home inventory is increasing in most states. Real Retail Sales are flat. Some very big retailers are on the verge of bankruptcy and going under. The holiday fire-sales backfired, as most retailers actually lost money. While sales volume rose, profits dropped during the two months of Nov & Dec. thanks to extremely low prices. Auto sales, now that we have found out about the ‘inventory ruse’ have been flat as well. (no 15% rise like was thought)
        More smoke & mirrors. Unemployment is rising. U6 UE is over 23% now, could even be 25%. Durable orders were down for 2011.
        Consumer debt is increasing. Federal debt is increasing. Most states are raising property taxes to meet municipal budget short-falls. Most states are in the Red on Pensions payments. So where in your never-land theories is the economy actually improving. Please share this new found information!

      • “Net jobs for January are somewhere in the neighborhood of 100K LESS than stated.” but… the past several months have all seen the previous month’s numbers revised UPWARDS, indicating an overall improvment, the surveys are actually behind the curve. That is not to say things are good, or that the improvement is strong. They are not, and it is slow. But claiming it is worsening is simply not true

  2. Thanks for sharing. Im a big fan of that graphic, it really shows the lie in the whole “Obama’s policies made it worse” storyline. My favorite jobs graphics though are the ones I posted here:
    They show government and private sector employment levels, and shoot down the whole big government socialist thing at a glance.

  3. The facts are there….Obama has created jobs in one of the toughest economies since the Great Depression. The only people who believe otherwise are those who get their news from hard right-wing news organizations.

    • Very true but unfortunately it seems many people are getting their information from those very “news” sources and they are dominating the conversation. Hopefully, now that the President is moving into campaign mode he will be able to steer that conversation. But of course it takes more than one person to do that. May the bigger media sources need to troll the smaller blogs like the ones here on wordpress to illustrate perspectives they are not covering in their regular newscasts. I know…wishful thinking but there are a lot of questions not be answered let alone asked.

  4. Two comments:
    1-President Obama had nothing to do with private-sector growth
    2-The above graphic only shows part of the total job creation picture

    Yours is the same graphic touted by President Obama in the WH link to the State of the Union address. The ironic part is that ARRA, Obama’s economic recovery package, did not create any private sector jobs.

    Most ARRA jobs – at a cost of $1.3 million/job –
    ( )
    that the government “created/saved” through ARRA were existing public sector teacher jobs through State “stabilization” grants.

    Looking at the total employment picture shows a MUCH different result fromk the above graphic! You can see the the more accurate total view here:

    The private sector is growing despite President Obama’s economic policies… not because of them.

    • azleader, please see my post here (and linked above):
      it shows that the public sector has been shrinking significantly. And saying that ARRA cost 1.3M / job is A) inconsistent with your statement that no jobs were created and B) a misleading number, as a significant chunk of the ARRA was in tax cuts, not funding for programs, and thus not related to job creation directly.

      • Just to be clear…
        I did not say, nor ever have said that ARRA lost jobs either in the public-sector or private-sector.
        What I have said, which is data supported, is this:
        1-ARRA did not create private-sector jobs
        2-ARRA has not resulted in any net gain of jobs in the U.S. through 2011
        3-The jobs ARRA “created or saved” were mostly saved public sector teacher jobs.

        ARRA was never designed to create private-sector jobs. It was designed mostly to pay federal and state government bills until the economy recovered; pave a few roads and subsidize worthy, but not cost effective, green energy programs.

        I published this article that explains most of what I just said:

      • Oh… and lest I forget…
        4-ARRA’s cost per job was excessively high!!!

  5. I love that you took on this topic. I’ve been harping on the Obama economy, and the GOP myth of expansive government heavily this year, while most bloggers find the topic too complex to really examine in depth. It’s nice to find a counterpart who is willing to tell the truth, rather than perpetuate the myths of the other side.

    That said, I do want to mention that I still believe that more can and should be done, regardless of who is in office. I’m not a fan of the Obama administration, but I can respect the challenges he has faced, and that the economy is actually improving.

    • I agree! more absolutely should be done. The Fed’s inaction in the face of persistent high unemployment during a period of very low inflation expectations is inexcusable. Its a dual mandate!

  6. Wow, I have stumbled upon the obummer kool-aid camp!
    I agree with mp, the right-wing news is slanted, as badly biased
    as your left-wing news you constantly cite.
    One has to be very simplistic to actually believe the right or the left.
    The bottom line is, the government isn’t forthright about ANYTHING.
    It’s an election year for Barry, all government agencies are ‘instructed’
    to oblige the current administrations whims. More recently it’s happened under both Clinton, Bush and now it’s in full force with your boy B. Trying to ‘defend’ the government
    is charming, but an ultimate failure. Most people are waking up to the realization
    of the decades of lies and deception by our government, be it republicans or democrats.
    I just have to laugh when I hear and see such nonsense of ‘the economy is improving”
    It’s good entertainment!

    • I’m definitely not for Obama in any regard. Whether you listen to the BLS stats, or look at the stock market historical average, or the level of new investments into the US economy by foreign businesses, there are signs of the economy improving since May 2008. Even if those numbers are deflated by the BLS, they are still a separate entity from the administration. If they were manipulating numbers to make the economy appear more favorable, the numbers under Nixon, when he DEMANDED the numbers be manipulated, would have changed. Instead, the bureau released the numbers, and Nixon was on the defensive.

      Stock market is up. Commodities exchange is up. Consumer confidence is up. Credit lending is up. Spending is up. These are all facts. Whether it comes from the whack-o Right or the passive Left, the numbers are speaking that economic recovery has begun.

      Even Mitt Romney has stated the economy is improving.

      Whether you look at UE3 or UE6, the numbers are still lower today than they were at this time in 2009, when Obama was new in office. (I did not vote for Obama in 2008). The numbers show improvement, whether adjusted for the census data or not. They might not be leaps and bounds better, but they are still better.

      I don’t defend the government. In fact, I speak about reducing it often. I’m neither GOP nor Dem, and I state that often as well. I look at the world through nonpartisan eyes, and will read the right-wing nonsense as often as I read the left-wing rags.

      Beyond the government “deceiving” us all, there are many more deceptions out there. Companies, organizations, media outlets, individuals – they all work to deceive in order to gain something. That the government deceives us is nothing new. It was spoken about in Ancient Rome and Greece. It was spoken of against the Catholic Church during the Middle Ages. Machiavelli wrote about it. Voltaire wrote about it. Shakespeare wrote about it. It is nothing new, nor does it appear to change into the future.

      We can either attempt to see through the deception, or buy into it. I choose to see through it with a rational approach, open to the idea that perhaps my own vision may be wrong. I’m open to that approach. Others, it appears, are unable to handle learning their precious beliefs are wrong, and thus, double down in their defense by randomly using vague words, insults, or rhetoric without substance. That’s where people stop listening, and the conversation ends, allowing those who deceive a good laugh at the peoples inability to work together towards a common cause – transparency.

    • Econometrics> There is a level of civil debate I expect to maintain on this site’s forums. I previously requested that you refrain from the empty rhetoric and name calling in an earlier comment. As you may or may not have noticed everyone else commenting here shows their respect for one other and any differing viewpoints. If you wish to continue presenting your arguments here, you are welcome to but be civil. If this is something you’re incapable of doing I will begin editing your posts or deleting them all together.

      Thank you for your cooperation.

  7. I offer amends for being gruff and rough around the edges, that’s how I usually tend
    to be when so many facts get brushed aside or ignored. I’ll tone it down- begrudgingly.
    Alrighty then, on to the issues.

    Let me offer some additional figures and facts about the rate, the BLS and meaningful economic indicators. I’m addressing the various comments in no particular order.

    The Stock market in general, but more so in the past 3 years does not represent a meaningful indicator of economic health. Companies can buy back stock, lay-off workers, fudge their numbers to make it appear that they are increasing profits and are relatively healthy. They can also borrow money for basically nothing now to pay off old debt, while incurring virtually no or little new debt and padding the coffers with the near 0% interest rates.

    Consumer Confidence means very little when non-credit purchasing power has
    diminished or does not exist. Outlook and actual purchases do not always correlate, especially since 2009. As UE increases, as it actually is, there is less and less pp for spending other than the necessary staples.

    As I stated, Real Retail Sales are down. In a 67%-70% consumption-based economy,
    pp carries so much weight. Sales of big-ticket discretionary items have declined.
    Housing isn’t moving either, as the numbers are not improving at all while prices continue to drop- and will keep dropping due to the huge amount of distressed properties.

    Now, on to UE.
    Admits all the bell-ringing about the 243K jobs added and the purported 8.3% rate,
    both the BLS or the main stream media didn’t highlight the FACT that approx.,
    490K workers dropped out in January. Twice the amount that were added!
    Also, there are a massive 8.8 million more available workers who are classified as
    “not in labor force” than there were just four years ago and now 2.6 million more
    than one year ago and these numbers are rising.

    (please, don’t toss in the hollow argument that the majority of these drop outs
    are retiree’s, it just is not true. While a small percentage have retired, the majority
    have unfortunately given up in some form or way)

    What this (decrease in participation) does, is create the illusion of UE lowering.
    But in fact it is rising. Just because the BLS does not count these nearly 9 million available persons, does not mean they are available or would like a job.
    It is purely number manipulation.

    The massive drop in labor force participation makes it SEEM as if the rate is
    falling. The large-scale decline in labor participation has seriously contracted
    since 2008, which amazingly gets passed over by the media and the BLS.

    There are over 8 Million workers in part time jobs, seeking full time work.
    Either because their hours were cut or they are unable to find comparable FT work.

    Another very alarming and serious indicator of worsening unemployment is the
    mean duration, pegged at 41 weeks- an all-time U.S. high. A disturbing, but clear indicator of eroding labor conditions. Of all who are unemployed, 44% are
    considered Long-Term, (from 27 weeks up to 260 weeks)
    That is nearly HALF of all out of work persons, classified as long-term
    unemployed. THAT is very disturbing in-itself.

    As far as the credibility of the BLS? They have proven their short-comings and
    inabilities over the past 3 years, by not being forthright in publishing their findings
    and analysis. Many before me have pointed this out. The government in general
    operates in its own self-interests and over the past few decades more so than ever.

    Increasing numbers of the population distrust politicians, government data and claims,
    presented by government agencies. I believe the latest survey showed something like 60% (of the sampling) it is their own fault.

    • Okay, now we’re talking. There’s numbers and logic that I can wrap my head around. Some good information there. As I stated, the usual indicators, touted by the Smith Economic members, are showing upward momentum.

      Let me tell you a little about myself, and you’ll see why I completely understand about underemployment and drop outs from the labor force. I’m sure they’re not reported on government statistics, nor have they ever been to my knowledge.

      In early 2009, I was working as a collector for a major credit card company. The company reported a record 4th Quarter profit for 2008. The company was talking about raises and adding new workers to handle the defaulting individuals hurt by the collapse in September.

      The middle of Feb 2009, the company took nearly $600 million in bailout funds, despite the record profits. Within two weeks, the company laid off 500 workers in a 2,000 member staff, myself included. The only characteristic we had in common was that we made twice what new hires were making.

      Following the lay off, I fixed up my resume, and began applying for jobs. I applied for every position that I was qualified for. I applied in person, online, word-of-mouth, open calls. I applied with small businesses, large corporations, states and the federal government. I had a few interviews, where I left feeling there had been a good job. The interviewers seemed interested in me. I’d never hear back from the companies.

      To this day, I still have not found a “real job”. I was denied unemployment on a technicality of having worked in one state while living in another. It was hard. I started working as a freelance writer. Eventually, I started up my own business, working as a writer. I still apply for part time jobs. The common response is, “You’re too qualified for this position”. I suppose having 6 associates degrees, 2 bachelors and a masters is too much education. That was something no one ever said could happen.

      Now I’m locked in a perpetual catch-22. I’m too qualified for the entry level positions, but lack the decade of experience companies want for management positions. I run my own business, and barely make enough to survive. I’ve used all of my savings, and find myself constantly wondering how I’ll manage to pay off the next months bills.

      I have never been counted amongst the unemployment numbers. I am sure that I am not alone. I haven’t given up looking, but my seeking doesn’t count towards any parties political agenda. I’m stuck, like millions of others. Sure, there are jobs available at McDonald’s or Wal-Mart. I’ve applied for these jobs. I’m too qualified.

      I can see things getting better for some people. I wrote about that very fact on my own website. I can see the economy improving from where it was when the administration changed. There are many people who won’t see it. My stats in my post are correct, given the sourcing. My reasoning is sound, as to why the middle class and poor won’t see any recovery for a long time.

      I would love to find a well paying job. Right now, I don’t see that happening. For now, I’ll keep working on my writing career, building clients and trying to make it work. It’s not much, but it’s something. Maybe one day, I won’t have to worry about where my next meal will come from, or how I will keep the lights on. Maybe one day, I won’t be working 16 hours a day, 7 days a week trying to find clients, write articles, doing research. Maybe one day, I’ll be able to enjoy a meal that isn’t ramen noodles or saltine crackers. Maybe one day, I’ll be able to splurge for a coffee or a bottled pop.

      For now, I’m just another of the uncounted masses you mention. Perhaps that’s why I take the issue of the economy so personally. I lost a good job, my savings, my home. I walk everywhere. I eat what I can scrape together. It’s the way it is for millions of people, and the parties of both sides just aren’t feeling the pain we’re feeling.

      Sorry, I didn’t mean to ramble on, but I wanted to let you know why I think the way I do regarding this issue. I’m not disagreeing with your entire statement. I think we’re both right in our own ways. You provided information, I’ve provided mine. Perhaps I’m too close to the issue to really look objectively, but that’s my own fault.

      • First of all, thanks for toning it down, it is much appreciated!

        Just to be clear, I am not saying the economy is good. It is obviously not. I agree with your points about dropouts and duration of UE, these are very troubling, and a lot of folks will be left behind by this slow and painful recovery. At the rate we are going, a return to full employment is still years away.

        My point is simply this: Things are improving. Slowly, painfully, sure. But they are improving. Saying that they are not, and that the reason for the “decline” is the president’s policies, is simply false, and disingenuous. I get that you probably don’t like the guy. That’s fine. But please base your criticisms on actual policy and proposals, and not on conspiracy theories or things that have never been said or done

  8. Annabel,
    our stories are nearly identical. Self employed barley making it here,
    split the internet with my neighbor, walk to the stores, buy only what I absolutely need.

    Denied UE, unable to secure a FT salaried job, due to the exact same reasons you pointed out. I work probably 6 days a week all totaled (not as much as you do)
    researching, writing, scouring job boards, meet at the local church where there is a unemployed group 1 day a week to exchange ideas and network (some exec’s in there to my surprise!)

    As you stated, the McDonald’s type job is not only insulting, but so unrealistic.
    It has been suggested to me a couple of times, though I have had to
    ‘educate’ these ignorant persons in my life as to why I would not apply to the local fast food eatery. In 2009, I worked at a local upscale restaurant, as a dishwasher earning $8 p/hr.

    I lasted 3 months. Being insulted daily by the chef, ignored by the owner (literally, would not speak to the staff, except the wait staff) Now, I’m not averse to labor at all, I spent 16 years in maintenance. But after some serious back and neck injuries, I had to forgo the blue-collar stuff. That job was humiliating in some ways and refreshing in others, but after 3 months my brain was atrophying! Nearing 50 years old, I’m starting to get very worried about being gainfully employed in a stable, salaried position and my confidence erodes day by day…

    As a result of being a ‘1099’ and generating about $15k per year. I am not counted as either unemployed or underemployed by the BLS. ( I can go months without any work)
    During which time I am unemployed, but not counted. There are million like us that are not counted. The statistical (0.5% hh survey) measures utilized by the government are very weak.

    I do disagree with your assertion on the presidents policies. This administration has just carried over the previous Admin’s failed policies. This president has granted billions to investment banks, auto makers insurance companies, etc. Engaged in new conflicts and spending billions and billions of dollars this country will not be able to repay (without some type of FED manipulation)

    Debt-GDP is rising. We’re at 100% now, owing $15.23 Trillion dollars.
    The CBO projects a debt of 26 TRILLION in 2022. In order to reduce that ratio, GDP has to be at least 6% per year! We can’t even get to a measly 3%! Which means Debt-GDP will top 100% as the months and years go by. This is a direct result of the previous and PRESENT administrative policies without question.

    Debt to GDP under Bush went from approx., 58% to 80%. Under Obama it has risen from 80% to now 100%. About the same exact spread. So saying that Obama’s policies are NOT responsible, is from my research, simply incorrect.

    I also want to correct a statement I made about real retail sales, as January data shows a 0.1% increase, yes, an amazing 0.1%. So I stand somewhat humbled, though they are for all intents and purposes, flat.

    I see that today’s initial claims fell by 15K. And last week was also ‘revised’ downward…
    Funny because there is so much conflicting data, such as;
    (from BW-)
    “The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits rose by 64,000 in the week ended Jan. 28 to 3.52 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

    Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 18,650 to 3.5 million in the week ended Jan. 21.

    The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 2.8 percent in the week ended Jan. 28 from 2.7 percent, today’s report showed. Twenty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 26 had an increase.”

    I also believe, but cannot confirm this minute, that 400K to 500K have now exhausted their EUC benefits. Which means those persons have ‘vanished’ according to the BLS’s measure. More fudging of figures.

    The THREE points that stick out in the BW story, are continuing claims rose by 64K
    EUC benefits jumped up by almost 19K and UE rate for those eligible increased 0.1%.
    Couple this data with the LT duration, more and more marginally or completely detached workers and the notion of an improving labor market is a mirage.
    I’m not sure how anyone could honestly and mathematically (not using the BLS math)
    computate an improving labor market. Participation is down to 63.7% and it is falling.
    The BLS is simply crunching numbers excluding ALL who are detached, dropped out and underemployed to make it look it like the rate is falling. This is without a doubt,
    misleading and deceptive.

    And I haven’t even touched on the EU and EZ crisis, that could drag our economy down even further. The FED is up to no good trying its best to with trickery to stave off an “official” double-dip recession, though I would argue that on Main Street, the recession never subsided.

    On a personal level, I feel for your plight Annabel, as I can relate so very well, though I disagree with some but not all of your analysis. I do hope you find something suitable for a job soon.

  9. Excuse me for being a bit tiresome…on the subject!
    But I wanted to weigh in with more labor stats.

    What’s is interesting is that the spread in U6 data from initial claims
    does not show any significant correlation at all. If U3 is supposedly
    improving, so too should the U6 data, but it’s not. That is one more
    indicator of an unhealthy labor market and deteriorating labor conditions.

    The number of actual, true number of all Underemployed/Unemployed Workers,
    in all categories, actually increased by 153,000 workers to 27.5 million
    when you count the following (instead of parsing out- ala BLS methodology)

    *The Underemployed (not by choice) at 8+ million
    *Marginally Attached, 2.8 million and
    *The Discouraged, at 3.7 million.

    Another issue, is the SNAP program, now something like 46-48 million people
    receiving food stamps. A huge increase in the past 3 years. Applications are
    not declining either, as one would think with the “improving” labor market
    and subsequent “improving” economy.

    The Dependency Index has risen 23% under this administration.
    There are now 67 million people who are relying on some type of federal
    assistance program. The dramatic rise was mainly a result of raises in
    housing subsidies, expansion in Medicaid and an increase of welfare

    In my previous posts on the ‘improving’ economy, I also did not speak about
    fuel and crude inflation. On average the U.S. consumer is paying 10% more
    than a year ago for a gallon of regular gas at the pump. Brent Crude now has a
    floor of about $95 p/br- thanks to the OPEC top 5 producer nations and middle-east financial obligations
    (one being paying off citizens in certain nations to stave off rioting and uprisings)
    Both Brent and WTI are creeping upward, as is gasoline. Further diminishing household spending. Which will only curtail any eventual and future recovery.

    • As I said, It’s okay to disagree with me. I don’t mind disagreement. I did find something today on the Washington Post (Or Com-Post, as you referred to it). I live in the DC area, so it’s the local paper to me. It takes a very good look at the same topic you and I were speaking about.

      It shows that you are right, and I was wrong regarding the understanding of the UE-6 report. I concede that I was wrong. In being wrong, I have learned something new, and I will use that to look at the situation in a different light.

      I’m sorry to hear about your own situation. I know how hard it is out there. We can relate to one another in that way. Perhaps we can get off on a better foot with one another, having a shared story.

      Here is the link I was referring to. It’s regarding Newt Gingrich speaking about the overall unemployment rate. While it does use computer models and BLS statistics, it is actually a higher number than you or I were thinking earlier.


      • Thanks for the link Annabel!
        So, basically the Post can see that U3 is really about 11.5% – 12%.

        Though one thing mentioned about U6 from the article, was the U6 accounts for labor force participation rate, but it doesn’t. So, the real U6 is more like +/-23%, not 15%.1. But it’s good to see them at least explore the issue.

        Also, consider that January’s labor data included the census dept’s., annual population adjustments that were applied to the January data,
        and will not be distributed evenly across the entire year. Which means comparing a change from the month of December to January is statistically null, Because the month includes a year of population adjustments.
        So the combination of persons dropping out and the newer census population data has skewed the January figures.

        Yes indeed, we have commonality, I think we can probably meet somewhere in the middle on both of our ‘arguments’ ; )


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